Goldman’s housing forecast for 2024

Goldman Sachs has issued its forecast for the housing market, giving us their look into the future of real estate several years down the road. Here are the report’s main predictions:

  • U.S. GDP will grow on an annualized basis by 2.5% and 2.1% in 2023 and 2024 respectively
  • Inflation (CPI) will end the year at 3.2% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024
  • 3.83 million homes will be sold in 2024, but that will rise to 4.24 million in 2025 and 4.37 million in 2026
  • 30-year fixed mortgage will range between 6.25% and 7.35%
  • Home prices will rise for the foreseeable future
    • +0.6% in 2024
    • +3.8% in 2025
    • +4.9% in 2026
    • +4.9% in 2027

Our take

While Goldman’s forecast for home sales seems too bearish to us since mortgage rates will continue to drop, those home price projections are in line with other forecasts we’ve seen. There will be no housing crash in 2024. In fact, things are looking better than we thought just a quarter ago. Let’s give credit where it’s due. The Fed has orchestrated a soft landing for 2023. GDP is positive, unemployment is low, and inflation is trending downward. Nobody was banking on that at the start of the year.

If you are looking for homes in Summerlin, Henderson, or Las Vegas, We have you covered. 

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